Fluctuations in the socio-economic development of cities of Russia: methodology and results of the calculation of the vector of dynamics

Abstract

Fluctuations in dynamics of social and economic development of 120 large cities of the Russian Federation in 2002-2011 on the basis of statistical data on nine socio-economic indexes are investigated. Classification of the cities by types of trajectories on a basis of the vectors of dynamics calculated according to an author's technique of research is executed. Approaches to verification of the received index of dynamics are offered. The possible reasons which have affected trajectories of the vectors of dynamics are considered on the example of Vladivostok, Kazan, Kaluga, Volgodonsk, the cities of the Tyumen region, Rubtsovsk, Dzerzhinsk, Pskov, Kyzyl. The conclusion that the obtained data reflects reality is drawn and can be used for check of different hypotheses of influence of various factors on dynamics of the cities. The analysis of influence on dynamics of the cities of one of possible factors - strategic planning - is made. Known supervision - that in modern Russia factors of the first nature prevail over institutional factors - was approved. Strategic planning can be the additional catalyst when there are also other prerequisites for development, but itself it isn't capable to break the negative trends.