Vulnerability of Field Crops to Over-Wetting under Climate Change in the Non-chernozem Region of the European Russia and Adaptation Options
https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607121040030
Abstract
The impact of excessive atmospheric moisture on crop production sustainability under forthcoming climate change in the Non-chernozem region of the European Russia is evaluated. Focus is placed on field crops, as they have important food value and are the forage base for dairy farming. Their vulnerability to over-wetting is characterized by recurrence of years with the G.T. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC) values greater than 1.8, which correspond to external conditions for the lodging occurrence. Based on the results obtained from the model runs of the transient GCMs with complete description of the physical mechanisms and relationships inside the model blocks, the change in air temperatures, precipitation totals and the HTC values for slice 2021–2030 is assessed. It is shown that when the scenario of controlled greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere is implemented (that corresponds with UN initiatives to ensure sustainable development until 2030), the northern part of the Non-chernozem region of the European Russia is revealed as most vulnerable to crop over-wetting effects. In the middle part of this zone, the effects of severe crop over-wetting may occur as well. In this regard, the set of adaptation measures and strategies is discussed aimed at mitigating the adverse impact of climate change.
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For citations:
Nikolaev M.V. Vulnerability of Field Crops to Over-Wetting under Climate Change in the Non-chernozem Region of the European Russia and Adaptation Options. Proceedings of the Russian Geographical Society. 2021;153(4):47-67. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607121040030
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