Response of Risk Farming to Anomalous Weather-Climatic Situations Under Changing Climate
https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607122030065
Abstract
In this paper as the risk farming zones in a changing climate, the regions that are contrasting in terms of the provision of crops with atmospheric moisture are considered, taking into account their crop production specialization. These include the Humid region (western and northern parts of the European Non-Chernozem Region) and the Semiarid region (the East of the European territory of Russia with adjacent areas of the Western Siberia). The study focuses on assessing the reccurrence of anomalous weather-climatic situations leading to crop losses in two periods that differ in the degree of anthropogenic influence on climate: 1945– 1980 and 1981–2017 years. To indicate climate – related farming risks, the ranges of the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) values are used, corresponding to the strong crop overwetting effects and severe droughts. On their basis, the gradations of anomalies in the accumulated air temperatures as well as anomalies in the precipitation totals are developed. Then, the frequency of anomalies of various magnitude on the indicated periods is evaluated. The spatial assessment of the risks associated with the excess and deficit of moisture in the segments of the field crops growing season is displayed in the form of maps of the reccurrence of years with anomalies in humidity and thermal conditions as well as with anomalies of integrated indicators such as HTC values. The presented information makes it possible to visually trace the features of shifting the boundaries of vulnerable areas within zones in a changing climate. The reasons for such a shift are discussed from climatological positions. It is shown that, along with the features of atmospheric circulation, the thermal factor in combination with the the underlying surface factor makes an increasingly significant contribution to the intensifying overwetting and dryness. An important role in the excessive moisture and drought effects on state of crops also belongs to the soil texture, which determines the degree of atmospheric moisture penetration into the soil layers. It is noted that in a changing climate, there is an evidence in increase in the extremeness of weather-climatic situations in terms of the moisture supply of crops with a simultaneous increase in the contrast of the regions under consideration.
References
1. Agroklimaticheskie resursy prirodnyh zon SSSR i ih ispol’zovanie / Pod red. akad. F.F. Davitaya L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1970. 160 s.
2. Agroklimaticheskie resursy Arxangel’skoj, Belgorodskoj, Bryanskoj, Vologodskoj, Voronezhskoj, Kalininskoj, Kirovskoj, Kostromskoj, Kujbyshevskoj, Kurganskoj, Kurskoj, Leningradskoj, Lipeczkoj, Novgorodskoj, Novosibirskoj, Omskoj, Orenburgskoj, Penzenskoj, Pskovskoj, Saratovskoj, Smolenskoj, Tambovskoj, Ul’yanovskoj, Chelyabinskoj i Yaroslavskoj oblastej; Karel’skoj ASSR, Komi ASSR, Bashkirskoj ASSR, Tatarskoj ASSR i Chuvashskoj ASSR (spravochniki) L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1968–1977.
3. Agroklimaticheskij atlas mira / Pod red. I.A. Gol`czberg. M.: GUGK; L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1972. 143 s.
4. Alpat’ev A.M., Ivanova V.M. Xarakteristika i geograficheskoe rasprostranenie zasux // Zasuhi v SSSR, ix proisxozhdenie, poyavtoryaemost’ i vliyanie na urozhaj. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1958. S. 31–45.
5. Atlas sel’skogo xozyajstva SSSR. M.: GUGK, 1960. 309 s.
6. Bioklimaticheskij potencial Rossii: metody monitoringa v usloviyah izmenyayushhegosya klimata / Pod.red.A.V. Gordeeva. M.: Izd.RASXN, 2007. Gl. 1. Razd. 1.2. S. 35–57.
7. Vtoroj ocenochnyj doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmeneniyah klimata i ih posledstviyah na territorii Rossijskoj Federacii. Obshhee rezyume. M.: Rosgidromet, 2014. 58 s.
8. Doklad Rosgidrometa ob osobennostyah klimata na territorii Rossijskoj Federacii za 2018 g. M.: Rosgidromet, 2019. S. 10–14, 18–20.
9. Zolotokrylin A.N., Vinogradova V.V., Cherenkova E.A. Dinamika zasuh v evropejskoj Rossii v situacii global’nogo potepleniya // Problemy` e`kologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya e`kosistem. T. 21. 2007. S.160–182.
10. Katczov V.M., Shkol’nik I.M., Efimov S.V. Perspektivnye ocenki izmenenij klimata v rossijskih regionah: detalizaciya v fizicheskih i veroyatnostny`h prostranstvah // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2017. № 6. S. 68–81.
11. Kononova N.K. Klassifikaciya cirkulyacionnyh mehanizmov Severnogo polushariya po B.L. Dzerdzeevskomu. M.: Voentehizdat, 2009. 372 s.
12. Konstantinov A.R., Himin N.M. Primenenie splajnov i metodov ostatochnyh otklonenij v gidrometeorologii. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. 184 s.
13. Landshaftnaya karta SSSR / Pod red. A.G. Isachenko. M.: GUGK, 1988. 4 l.
14. Mohov I.I., Semenov V.A. Pogodno – klimaticheskie anomalii v rossijskih regionah v svyazi s global’nymi izmeneniyami klimata. // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2016. № 2. S. 16–28.
15. Murav’ev A.V., Kulikova I.A Vzaimosvyaz’ summarnyh osadkov nad Evraziej s centrami dejstviya atmosfery Severnogo polushariya i glavnymi modami izmenchivosti temperatury poverhnosti Severnoj Atlantiki // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2011. № 5. S. 5–16.
16. Nacional’nyj doklad “Global’nyj klimat i pochvennyj pokrov Rossii: proyavlenie zasuhi, mery preduprezhdeniya, bor’by, likvidacii posledstvij i adaptacionnye meropriyatiya (sel’skoe i lesnoe hozyajstvo)”. T. 3. Edel’geriev R.S.H., Ivanov A.L., Donnik I.M., Bagirov V.A. i dr. M: Izd-vo Pochvennogo instituta im. V.V. Dokuchaeva, 2021. 700 s. https://doi.org/10.52479/978-5-6045103-9-1
17. Nesterov E.S. O vostochno-atlanticheskom kolebanii atmosfery // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2009. № 12. S. 32–40.
18. Nikolaev M.V. Sovremennyj klimat i izmenchivost’ urozhaev // Razdel 3.5. Zasuhi i dinamika neurozhaev. SPb.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1994. S. 86–100.
19. Nikolaev M.V. Izmeneniya global’nogo termicheskogo rezhima i izmenchivost’ urozhaev hlebnyh kul’tur // Izvestiya Russkogo geograficheskogo obshhestva. 1994. T. 126, vyp. 5. S. 11–20.
20. Nikolaev M.V. Ocenka izmenyayushhegosya vklada vlazhnostnogo i termicheskogo faktorov v zasushlivost’ territorij Evropejskoj chasti Rossii i Zapadnoj Sibiri // Agrofizika. 2016. № 4. S. 24–34.
21. Nikolaev M.V. Ocenka izmenyayushhegosya vklada obil’nyh osadkov v riskovannost’ zemledeliya v Nechernozem’e Evropejskoj Rossii // Izvestiya Russkogo geograficheskogo obshhestva. 2018. T. 150. vyp.6. S.1–14. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0869607118060010
22. Nikolaev M.V. Vliyanie klimaticheskih izmenenij na produktivnost’ melioriruemyh zemel’ // Materialy Vserossijskoj nauchnoj konferencii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem “Vklad agrofiziki v reshenie fundamental’nyh zadach sel’skohozyajstvennoj nauki”, Sankt- Peterburg, 1–2 oktyabrya 2020 g. SPb.: FGBNU AFI, 2020. S. 478–483.
23. Nikolaev M.V. Uyazvimost’ polevyh kul’tur k pereuvlazhneniyu v usloviyah izmenenij klimata v Nechernozem’e Evropejskoj Rossii i varianty adaptacii // Izvestiya Russkogo geograficheskogo obshhestva. 2021. T. 153. № 4. S. 47–67. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607121040030
24. Obuhov A.M., Kurganskaya M.V., Tatarskaya M.S. Dinamika uslovij vozniknoveniya zasuh i drugih krupnomasshtabnyh pogodnyh anomalij // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 1984. № 10. S. 5–14.
25. Prirodno–sel’skohozyajstvennoe rajonirovanie zemel’nogo fonda SSSR (karta). M.: GUGK, 1984.
26. Selyaninov G.T. Specializaciya sel’skohozyajstvennyh rajonov po klimaticheskomu priznaku // Rastenievodstvo SSSR. T. 1. M.: Sel’hozgiz, 1933. S. 1–15.
27. Selyaninov G.T. Principy agroklimaticheskogo rajonirovaniya SSSR // Voprosy agroklimaticheskogo rajonirovaniya SSSR. M.: Izd -vo MSH SSSR, 1958. S. 7–14.
28. Cherenkova E.A., Semenova I.G., Kononova N.K., Titkova T.B. Zasuhi i dinamika sinopticheskih processov na yuge Vostochno–Evropejskoj ravniny v nachale XXI veka // Izvestiya RAN. Ser. geogr. 2014. № 5. S. 1–21.
29. Shashko D.I. Agroklimaticheskie resursy SSSR. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1985. 247 s.
30. Shver Cz.A. Atmosfernye osadki na territorii SSSR. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. 300 s.
31. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report / Ed. by The Core Writing Team, Rajendra K. Pachauri, Leo Meyer. WMO: Geneva, 2014. 132 p.
32. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment / Ed. by J. Sillman, S. Sippel and S. Russo. Elsevier, 2020. 355 p.
33. Eitzinger J., Utset A., Trnka M., Zalud Z., Nikolaev M., and Uskov I. Weather and Climate and Optimization of Farm Technologies at Different Input Levels // Managing Weather and Climate Risks in Agriculture/Sivakumar M.V.K. and Motha R. (eds.). Springer, 2007. P. 141–170.
34. Eitzinger J., et all. Vulnerability and Adaptation Options of European Agriculture // Global Environmental Change: Challenges to Science and Society in Southeastern Europe / V. Alexandrov, M.F. Gajdusek, C.G. Knight, A. Yotova ( eds.). Springer, 2010. P. 139–161.
35. Eitzinger J., et all. Adaptation Options to Climate Change Impacts in European Agriculture // Climate Change Adaptation: Ecology, Mitigation and Management / Adam L. Jenkins (Ed.). Nova Science Publishers, 2011. P. 151–162.
36. Nikolaev M.V. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in North-West Russia and Adaptation Options // Advances in Environmental Modeling and Measurements. Chapter 20. / D.T. Mihailovic, B. Lalic (eds.). Nova Science Publishers, 2010. P. 223–231.
37. Nikolaev M.V. Integrated Assessment of Change in Contribution of Excessive Moisture to Farming Risks in the Humid Zone of Western Russia // Meteorology, Hydrology and Water Management. 2020. V. 8. issue 1. P. 46–53. https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/111
38. Nikolaev M.V. Assessment of Crop Farming Vulnerability to Over – Wetting Effects under Climate Change in the Humid Zone of Western Russia// Book of Abstracts of the 13th International Conference on Agrophysics “Agriculture in Changing Climate”, 15–16 November 2021, Lublin, Poland. 2021. P. 69.
Review
For citations:
Nikolaev M.V. Response of Risk Farming to Anomalous Weather-Climatic Situations Under Changing Climate. Proceedings of the Russian Geographical Society. 2022;154(3):11-27. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607122030065
Views:
163
Email this article 