Assessment of epidemic potential of the European territory of Russia based on the complex of natural focal diseases

Abstract

The aim of the paper is the assessment of epidemic potential of the European territory of Russia (ETR) based on the complex of natural focal diseases and the identification of the main spatiotemporal characteristics of their manifestations. For the analysis there were selected seven model infections which are the most widespread in the ETR and posing a threat to public health. The data were extracted from the Rospotrebnadzor statistics concerning the absolute number of cases and morbidity of the population (per 100 000 of the population) for the years 1997-2015 in 56 administrative territorial units of the ETR. For assessment of the epidemic potential of the regions the nosological integral index had been calculated, which takes into account the epidemic intensity (incidence per 100 000 habitants), the frequency of diseases and loymopotential of the territory (number of disease entities in the region which is the subject of the Russian Federation). An integrated assessment map is based on the results of the analysis. The highest epidemic potential or risk of contagion is indicated in Vologda region, Republic of Udmurtia and Perm region. For the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District the epidemic potential is estimated as low. Usage of the suggested methods allows to evaluate potential hazard of the area based on the complex of natural focal diseases, estimate the variety of existing nosological entities, the degree of stability of the manifestations of a particular infection and draw a conclusion about the epidemic potential of the analyzed regions, or the risk of infecting the population with natural focal diseases.