Fluctuations in the relative dynamics of the development of regional centers of Russia in 2003-2013

Abstract

The article deals with the dynamics of socio-economic development of the 75 cities-administrative centres of Russian regions. The main objective of the study is to test the author's methodology that defines and classifies the trajectories of change in the relative position of the city in the studied sample in each year of the period. Unlike common schema analysis when comparing the situation at the beginning and at the end of the period, the authors study the changes for 11 years on a year-by-year basis, in other words, trajectories of change in the relative position of the object in the studied sample. The study and comparison of the trajectories allows: a) to see the inflection points-the years in which the city's development was slowed or accelerated to further identifying the factors that influence the trajectory; b) suggest the base to group cities by the type of trajectory dynamics. The technique involves the calculation of index of dynamics of city development based on the integration of nine indicators and building of vector ranks. In addition, sampling characteristics of minimum and maximum values and coefficients of variation are calculated for each of nine primary indicators. The cities are grouped according to the trajectory of the vectors ranks dynamics. The group of cities and towns steadily growing faster than others, consistently lagging and path-changing ones are identified. Hypotheses about the causes of the acceleration or deceleration of individual cities are presented. No meaningful connection between acceleration of the development and elaboration of official strategies was identified.