Coping with a warming winter climate in Arctic Russia: sea ice retreat in Barents and Kara Sea affecting Yamal Nenets reindeer nomadism

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas in the North-West region of Arctic Russia. Assessing potential drivers and linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and maintenance of the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures in recent decades have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow events across the region have become more frequent and intense. Here we review the evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to Barents and Kara sea ice loss. Two major rain-on-snow events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory Nenets herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The link between sea ice loss and affects for the frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow events is suggested. This led to extensive icing of pastures and to the highest case of reindeer mortality in the entire history of Yamal. If Barents and Kara sea ice continues to decline, better forecasts of autumn ice retreat could help to buffer against reindeer starvation following future rain-on-snow events. Precise and real-time weather forecast and warning of the probability of wet precipitation during winter may have serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism.

«дождь-на-снег», reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), Yamal peninsula, Nenets herders, oral history, Barents and Kara seas, sea ice, West Siberia, climate change, rain-on-snow, icing

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