Assessment of the Prospects for the Ethnodemographic Transformation of Central Asia in Accordance with Geopolitical Development Scenarios
https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607122010062
Abstract
The ethnodemographic forecast in the Central Asian states is complicated by the lack of clear medium- and long-term prospects for the development of the political and socio-economic situation in this macro-region. The aim of the study is to assess the ethnodemographic and linguistic processes in the countries of Central Asia for the period up to the middle of the XXI century. Earlier, the authors, relying on the results of censuses and population surveys, identified the main trends in the ethnodemographic development of the young states of Central Asia. Authors of the article estimate deviations from the main trend line in the next three decades, subject to the implementation of certain geopolitical scenarios. Four medium-term and six long-term scenarios of the political development of the Central Asian macroregion are considered, the course of ethnodemographic and linguistic processes is assessed based on the implementation of a specific geopolitical scenario. The implementation of negative geopolitical scenarios, characterized by the growth of Islamic extremism in combination with inter-clan conflicts and border disputes, threatens uncontrolled population growth, accompanied by flows of refugees within the macroregion and beyond, and an overwhelming majority of the Russian population leaving Central Asia. In case of activation of the “Big Game” with the participation of China and Turkey, it is unlikely that the main trend line of ethnodemographic processes set in the first three post-Soviet decades will change. If a significant socio-economic effect is achieved as a result of deepening Eurasian integration, there are chances to reduce the influence of ethnodemographic factors currently working on the cultural distance of the Central Asian states from Russia.
About the Authors
A. G. Manakov
Pskov State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pskov
N. K. Terenina
Pskov State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pskov
A. G. Khokhrin
Pskov State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pskov
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For citations:
Manakov A.G., Terenina N.K., Khokhrin A.G. Assessment of the Prospects for the Ethnodemographic Transformation of Central Asia in Accordance with Geopolitical Development Scenarios. Proceedings of the Russian Geographical Society. 2022;154(1):17-27. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607122010062
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