Vol 149, No 2 (2017)
3-15 153
Abstract
Negative demographic trends are one of the most serious problems of development of post-socialist countries. The aim of the study is a forecast of demographic processes in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe up to 2096. Demographic forecast is among the most difficult scientific tasks. It is necessary to take into account different characteristics of natural and mechanical movement of the population which is influenced by economic, social, cultural, political and other factors. This article is prepared on the basis of several Bayesian probabilistic projections according to the Population division of the UN. The main research methods are the scenario approach and multifactorial simulation modeling. Key objectives of the study include a critical analysis of the use of stabilization hypothesis of migration components of demographic processes at the scenarios made by the Population division of UN.
16-30 137
Abstract
The inter-annual fluctuations of water level at the mouth of the Pregolya River (the main river of the Kaliningrad oblast), considered on the basis of the daily observations during 1996-2015, demonstrate a positive trend of 6.4 mm · year-1(the rise 12.8 cm · period-1). The trend for yearly minimum water level (4.7 mm · year-1, 9.5 cm · period-1) is well coordinated with this trend, while the yearly maximum water level exhibits the negative trend (-4.8 mm · year-1, -9.5 cm · period-1). This may testify the weakening in wind impact associated with regional atmospheric circulation and the increase of the role of rainfall in the catchment basin during last years. The trend in calendar season values of the water level shows that water level in winter has grown twice faster than in other seasons (10.7 mm · year-1 for winter and 4.9, 4.8, 5.0 mm · year-1 for spring, summer and autumn). This result may be caused by both the increase of frequency of no-snow winters or/and the reducing of the frozen period with shift of its beginning till February. The variations of monthly average water level are almost individual for each of the analyzed years in the period 1996-2015 and are often strongly different from the intra-annual seasonal course of the water level averaged through the period, which has two maxima and two minima. It indicates the weak influence of the seasonal variations of regime forming factors in the study area.
30-50 211
Abstract
The Black Sea is clearly divided into the North-Western shallow part and the deep-sea part. The processes of differentiation in the North-Western part of the Black Sea are defined by the peculiarities of its natural conditions: shallowness and the river flow. Accordingly, the leading factors, which form the space structure of the North-Western part of the Black Sea, consist in the local peculiarities of its bottom and the character of interaction of different rivers flow. The specific peculiarity of regional differentiation of deep-sea part of the Black Sea is predominance of the morphometric factor of differentiation. Configuration of the coasts, shape of the pit and relief of sea bottom cause the concentric distribution of geographical characteristics in its deep-sea part with the most expressed changes from the seaboard districts towards the high sea.
50-60 187
Abstract
A method of forming a complex of raster electronic maps for GIS and geoportals is offered for a series of archive large-scale maps of provinces (guberniya) of European Russia of the middle of the XIX century surveyed by A. I. Mende. Eight maps of provinces have been processed (including Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Nizhni Novgorod, Simbirsk, Ryazan, Tambov, Penza provinces). The resulting data resources have been included in the structure of a set of geoportals.
60-71 128
Abstract
The geodemographical aspects of the development of Karelian isthmus territory during the forming of a part of regional system of settlement in the Leningrad region (oblast) were analyzed. The immigration processes dynamics on the territory of Karelian isthmus, which was transferred from Finland to Soviet Union was studied on the basis of mostly unpublished local governmental statistics data. Comparative analysis of recovery rates of demographic potential of Karelian isthmus and of other Leningrad region districts, which were affected by Great Patriotic War, is carried out. Main spatial differences of first (1940-1941) and second (1944-1949) colonization results are provided and their causes are analyzed. The special attention is given to the characteristic of urbanization processes on new developed territory. The role of the changes in economic-geographical situation of transferred territories during the processes of transformation of territorial organization of population is shown as well.
72-77 125
Abstract
Active cooperation of the Soviet and Chinese geographers had started after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and has been closest in the 1950-ies. Despite the short term the significant results in the development of Chinese geography were obtained over these years. The experience of the author, who worked during two years (1957-1959) in China, gives reason to believe that the results of mutual cooperation are of importance for geographers of the two countries. Along with the scientific training of geographers for China, the Soviet geographers carried out a large field and theoretical research work together with Chinese colleagues, particularly in actual problems of landscape science and physical-geographical regionalization. Unfortunately, since 1960 the contacts between geographers of the two countries were interrupted due to dictatorial policy of Mao Zedong, banning any relations with the Soviet Union. Interrupted for more than 25 years contacts of Soviet/Russian geographers with Chinese colleagues had resumed in the second half of the 1980s, with the beginning of «perestroika» in the USSR.
78-83 104
Abstract
The history of the Novosibirsk regional branch of the Russian Geographical Society (RGS) is examined. The information on its activities since the establishment in 1946 year is cited and plans for the near future are discussed. The cooperation of RGS members with the institutions of the Academy of Sciences of USSR (Russian Academy of Sciences) and educational institutions, cultural institutions, non-governmental organizations is observed, mainly in the period of 1946-beginning of 1980s. The information on the publishing activity and the dynamics of membership of the regional branch is provided. Over the years, the Novosibirsk regional branch of RGS was engaged in field studies of natural resources in Western Siberia, publishing and lecturing activities. Currently, a large share of the Novosibirsk regional branch of RGS activity is promotion of geographic scientific knowledge, local history and organization of tourist expeditions.
ISSN 0869-6071 (Print)